Sources, how we separate the steps of the chain, what the numbers mean, and the limits.
| Source | Used for |
|---|---|
| CEPII BACI (HS 2012, V202601): trade between all countries, yearly, 2012–2024 | World shares by step, trade routes, EU imports over time, the traced share |
| Eurostat Comext (DS-045409): EU member states’ imports, monthly, January 2019 to July 2026 | EU suppliers and member states, the 2026 battery-grade code |
| Plant list, compiled October 2026 (Bruegel, company releases, CRMA strategic projects) | The capacity map and the 1.5% figure |
| Market prices (Argus, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, Fastmarkets) | Setting the price bands |
| Park et al. (2025), Geosciences Journal 29 | Anode share of cell weight and cost; China’s share of mine production |
| Step | Customs code | Price per tonne |
|---|---|---|
| Mining (Tier I): flake | HS 2504.10 | under US$1,300 |
| Refining (Tier II): spherical and other refined | HS 2504.10 | US$1,300–4,000 |
| Components (Tier III): coated anode material | HS 2504.10 | US$4,000 and over |
| Synthetic route: artificial graphite | HS 3801.10 | all |
| Battery-grade artificial graphite (from 2026) | CN 3801 10 10 | all |
Customs codes do not separate battery-grade material, so natural graphite is sorted into steps by its price per tonne, using bands set from market prices before looking at the results. Shipments under 1 tonne are left out of prices. In the monthly EU data the bands are €1,200 and €3,700.
With lower or higher bands, China’s share of refined exports in 2022–24 stays at about 68–72%.
| Measure | How it is calculated |
|---|---|
| China’s share | China’s exports (or the EU’s imports from China) divided by the total, by value. |
| Concentration index (HHI) | Each exporter’s share squared, then added up: near 0 = many sellers, 1 = one seller. |
| Traced share | Each supplier’s share of EU coated imports × the share of its refined graphite bought from China, added up (2022–24). An upper estimate. |
| Flake sent to China | Share of other countries’ mined flake exports (by tonnes) that goes to China. |
Scope: the EU27 and the European Economic Area (Norway).
| Item | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Battery cell capacity in operation | about 250 GWh a year | EU and Norway (Bruegel) |
| Graphite needed | 250,000–300,000 t a year | 1.0–1.2 kg per kWh |
| Anode material made in Europe | about 4,400 t a year | Vianode (Norway) and Tokai COBEX (France) |
| Share of the need | about 1.5% | 4,400 ÷ 250,000–300,000 |
The data and notebooks are in our Google Drive folder.