One hop away

A magnet bought from Vietnam or South Korea is not a Chinese import in the statistics. But if Vietnam's own imports come largely from China, the dependence is only one step removed. We measure both: direct dependence (the share bought from China) and one-hop dependence (adding China's share inside each supplier's own imports). For US magnets in 2024, direct dependence is 77% and one-hop dependence 93%. Japan, China's target in 2010, buys only about 36% of its magnets directly from China, but about 68% once one hop is counted: almost three quarters of the difference comes through Vietnam, which itself buys 87% of its magnets from China. And the gap has grown. After 2010, Japan cut its direct dependence from about 65% to 36%, but its one-hop dependence fell much less and has been rising again since 2021. Japan diversified on paper; in practice, much of its dependence simply moved through Vietnam.