Sovereignty on paper

For compounds, the predictor says other countries already trade enough to replace all of China's sales to the West. But look at where that supply goes today: Myanmar, Laos and Malaysia sell much of it to China, to Chinese refiners. And for magnets, the stage that matters most, other countries could replace only about 13% of China's sales to the West, even on paper.

This is also how China eases the environmental burden at home: the mining happens abroad, the refining stays in China. To cover the gap, the West would have to outbid China for that feedstock, then separate and refine it itself, using the know-how China banned from export in 2023. The capacity to replace China exists on paper; in practice, much of it depends on China.